โข Algorithm: Random Forest Classifier
โข Estimators: 200 trees
โข Max Depth: 12
โข Features per split: sqrt(47) = 7
โข Training Method: Stratified K-Fold CV (5 folds)
89.3%
Accuracy
0.91
Precision
0.87
Recall
0.89
F1-Score
Output: Churn Probability (0-100%)
๐
Model 2: Churn Attribution
Multi-Class Classification (Root Cause Analysis)
Churn Attribution Categories:
Low NPS Score
Customer dissatisfaction & poor experience
Competition
Competitor offers & switching intent
Pricing Concerns
High bills & affordability issues
Quality of Service
Poor service quality & complaints
Connection Drops
Network reliability & dropped calls
Low Usage
Declining engagement & activity
Other Factors
Contract issues, relocation, miscellaneous
Model Architecture:
โข Algorithm: XGBoost Multi-Class Classifier
โข Classes: 7 churn categories
โข Features: Same 47 features + churn probability
โข Objective: multi:softmax
โข Training: Only on churned customers
84.7%
Accuracy
0.82
Macro F1
7
Categories
48
Features
Output: Primary Churn Reason + Confidence Score
Two-Stage Prediction Pipeline
STAGE 1
Churn Prediction Model
โ Probability: 87%
IF Churn = Yes
(Probability > 50%)
STAGE 2
Attribution Model
โ Reason: Pricing (73%)
ACTION
Retention Strategy
โ Discount Offer
Model Evaluation
Comprehensive model performance metrics and validation
Random Forest
89.3%
Accuracy
โ SELECTED
XGBoost
87.1%
Accuracy
Model Deployment
Deploying trained model to production environment
Deployment Status
โ Model Deployed
Production endpoint active
โก Real-time Inference
API endpoint ready
Customer Retention & Outreach
Proactive customer re-engagement using churn attribution insights from Model 2
CHURN ATTRIBUTION TRIGGERS - REAL-TIME MONITORING
7-category attribution model identifying root causes of customer churn
๐
Low NPS Score
Customers with NPS โค 6 (Detractors)
156
Detected
42
In Queue
71%
Retained
๐
Competition
Competitor offers or port-out inquiries
87
Detected
23
In Queue
75%
Retained
๐ฐ
Pricing Concerns
Billing complaints or pricing sensitivity
112
Detected
34
In Queue
82%
Retained
โก
Quality of Service
Service quality or speed complaints
94
Detected
28
In Queue
69%
Retained
๐ก
Connection Drops
Network reliability and connectivity issues
78
Detected
21
In Queue
73%
Retained
๐
Low Usage
Customers with >30% usage decline
342
Detected
87
In Queue
68%
Retained
๐
Other Factors
Miscellaneous churn indicators
54
Detected
15
In Queue
64%
Retained
๐
TOP CHURN CATEGORY - HIGHEST IMPACT
Low Usage (342 Customers)
Root Cause: 45% average usage decline โข Primary Action: Usage incentives + plan optimization โข Revenue at Risk: $8.5M annually
PRIORITY CUSTOMER QUEUE - AI OUTREACH
Customers ranked by churn risk and attribution category
AI Dialer Integration
Dialer Statusโ ACTIVE
AWS Connect Integration
Powered by Amazon Bedrock Nova
234
Active Calls Today
3.2m
Avg Call Duration
Today's Performance
342
Calls Initiated
234
Retained
68.4%
Success Rate
$487K
Revenue Saved
AI Agent Workflow
18-agent autonomous workflow for churn prevention and customer retention
Agent Status
๐ฏ Real-time Monitoring
Monitor customer behavior patterns
๐ Feature Selection
Select optimal feature set
๐ Dialer Agent
Initiate retention calls
๐ฌ Conversation Agent
Handle customer interactions
๐ Offer Manager
Create personalized offers
๐ Analytics Agent
Generate insights and reports
Dataset Profile
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Information
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Code Generator
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Notebook Configuration
Generated Code Preview
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Interactive Code Viewer
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Execution Output
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Jupyter Integration
This code viewer provides an interactive environment for running Python code.
Code execution simulates Jupyter notebook environment with real-time output display.
Download the code to run in your local Jupyter notebook or deploy directly to AWS SageMaker.
SHAP Feature Analysis - AI-Powered Explainability
×
AWS Nova-Powered Feature Importance Analysis
Advanced AI explanations using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values + AWS Bedrock insights
18
Features Selected
47
Initial Features
61.7%
Reduction Rate
92.1%
Model Accuracy
3.2x
Speed Improvement
Top 10 Features - Ranked by SHAP Importance
1
usage_decline_percentage
Behavioral Signal ยท Structured Data
23.5%
SHAP Importance
AWS Nova Pro AI Explanation:
Why it matters: Declining usage is the #1 predictor of churn. Customers who reduce their monthly voice/data consumption by >20% are 4.7x more likely to churn within 90 days. This behavioral shift signals dissatisfaction, financial constraints, or migration to competitors.
Business Impact: Early detection allows proactive retention campaigns. A 10% improvement in identifying usage decline can save $2.4M annually by preventing high-value customer churn.
Model Interpretation: SHAP values show this feature contributes most to churn probability. When usage drops >30%, model confidence increases by 18 percentage points.
2
complaint_count_90d
Service Quality ยท Structured Data
18.2%
SHAP Importance
AWS Nova Pro AI Explanation:
Why it matters: Customer complaints are direct signals of dissatisfaction. Each additional complaint in a 90-day window increases churn probability by 12%. Customers with 3+ complaints have a 67% churn rate vs. 8% baseline.
Business Impact: Complaint resolution within 48 hours reduces churn risk by 45%. Prioritizing high-complaint customers for proactive outreach can recover 32% of at-risk revenue.
Model Interpretation: This feature shows strong interaction effects with NPS score and sentiment. Combined low NPS + high complaints = 89% churn prediction accuracy.
3
sentiment_score_avg
NLP-Derived ยท Unstructured Data (AWS Nova)
15.3%
SHAP Importance
AWS Nova Pro AI Explanation:
Why it matters: NLP sentiment analysis from call transcripts reveals emotional state. Negative sentiment (score < -0.5) correlates with 73% churn probability. This unstructured data captures dissatisfaction that structured metrics miss.
Business Impact: Combining sentiment with structured features improves model accuracy by 8.4%. Real-time sentiment monitoring enables same-day intervention for highly negative interactions.
Model Interpretation: AWS Nova Pro extracts emotional context from 127K call transcripts. SHAP shows sentiment is critical for borderline cases where traditional metrics are neutral.
Features 4-10: Summary
4. customer_tenure_months14.1%
Demographic ยท New customers (<6 months) churn 3.2x more
NLP-Derived ยท Mentions of du, etisalat indicate switching intent
7. nps_score9.8%
Service Quality ยท Detractors (NPS<7) have 54% churn rate
8. connection_drop_rate8.9%
Network Quality ยท Drop rate >5% drives service quality complaints
9. avg_bill_amount7.6%
Financial ยท High bills (>500 AED/mo) correlate with pricing churn
10. support_call_frequency6.4%
Behavioral ยท >3 support calls/month indicate unresolved issues
Multi-Method Feature Selection Approach
SHAP Values
Game theory-based feature importance
Random Forest
Feature importance from tree splits
XGBoost Gain
Feature gain and coverage metrics
Mutual Info
Statistical dependency analysis
Consensus-Based Selection
Features selected only if ranked in top 20 by at least 3 out of 4 methods, ensuring robust and reliable feature set with minimal redundancy and maximum predictive power.